fernandejackson: Mitt Romney won Ohio, but he faces challenges in the state against President Obama

WASHINGTON, D.C. ? Can Mitt Romney beat President Barack Obama on Obama's turf?

He may have to if he is the Republican presidential nominee in November and hopes to win the White House, or so Ohio's voting patterns suggest after last week's Super Tuesday primary.

Romney won Ohio's primary narrowly, by 10,508 votes in the unofficial count,?but he captured more delegates in the state and nationally than any competitor, giving him an edge well before the Republican convention in August. Others in the Republican presidential race say it is presumptuous to assume the former Massachusetts governor will be their party's nominee. Still, he was the Ohio victor, and in winning, he provided a glimpse of challenges he'd face in an election against Obama:

? Romney won by carrying Ohio's urban counties. From a map showing results statewide, it could not be clearer that Romney's strength was centered in Hamilton County, Franklin County and Cuyahoga County. That means Cincinnati and its exurbs, Columbus, and the Cleveland-Akron area, plus Dayton and Youngstown.

That happens to be Obama country, or was in the 2008 election in which the Democrat defeated his Republican opponent, U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona.

Nearly all those other parts of Ohio -- the ones that voted for Rick Santorum -- are likely to stay in the Republican column in November. But past presidential contests have demonstrated that for a Republican candidate to win, he needs to nudge up his support in urban counties, even the ones Democrats are almost certain to win.

There are at least two ways to view Romney's primary victory in these counties.

The first is voiced by Romney supporters like Rob Portman, the U.S. senator who campaigned across the state for the candidate. Portman said Romney's success in Ohio's urban counties means "we now have a candidate who's going to be quite competitive there. And I think that changes the dynamic of the race in Ohio in a positive way for Republicans."

The results from Ohio, said Romney campaign spokesman Ryan Williams, "show that Gov. Romney has a strong base in some of the cities of Ohio -- Columbus, Cincinnati, Cleveland. These are areas where the nominee will need to compete with the president, and Gov. Romney's in a strong position to do that."

But there's another way of looking at the result. Romney performed very well around Cincinnati, which is Portman's base, but he was relatively weak by that standard in the more heavily populated Franklin County, or the Columbus area. Romney beat Santorum by only 4,405 votes in Franklin, winning 39.6 percent to Santorum's 36.1 percent, a slender margin.

Compare that with 2008, when Obama bested McCain in Franklin County 334,709 to 218, 496, giving Obama nearly a 60 percent share of the county's vote and helping deliver Ohio to the Democrat. There were different dynamics in each race. But the data point to a similar conclusion: Romney will have to boost his urban-county support in mid-Ohio to be competitive in a general election.

? Romney's weakness in Ohio's primary-- or Santorum's strength -- occurred almost everywhere else in the state. Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania, won nearly four?times as many Ohio counties: 69, to Romney's 19.

They just happened to be less populated.

"While [Romney] did win in Cincinnati and Cleveland and Columbus, he had his proverbial hat handed to him" throughout the rest of the state, said Chris Redfern, chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party.

Rural counties can't be taken for granted

Santorum appealed to social conservatives who care heavily about abortion and to evangelicals, exit polls showed. Romney did not.

Political strategists know that these counties almost always support a Republican unless he comes wearing horns and holding a pitchfork (a characterization Republicans prefer to ascribe to Democrats). Still, it's a mistake to take the rural counties for granted. Not only are there more of them; but also Republicans can energize the voters there and push up their turnout, overcoming Democrats' advantages in the cities.

Romney finished in second place to Santorum in these counties. Can he excite more of these voters by the fall so they'll show up in big enough numbers?

"I think if Romney were to become the nominee, he's going to have to give these folks some kind of assurances," said Marilyn Musgrave, a former congresswoman from Colorado and vice president of government affairs for the Susan B. Anthony List, an anti-abortion coalition. Her group, which included a number of anti-abortion leaders from Ohio, backed Santorum with radio ads.

Romney's campaign and supporters say these patterns won't hold in November.

Rural and small-town Republicans preferred Santorum, but they will turn out in droves next fall to support Romney and a common Republican goal of turning Obama out of office, said Williams, the campaign spokesman.

"Polls show that Republican primary voters want to beat Barack Obama," Williams said. "It's their biggest objective for this election cycle, and our party will rally around our eventual nominee."

Portman said Romney can count on statewide support not only from social conservatives but also from Ohioans concerned about the economy, Second Amendment rights and hydraulic fracking, used to extract oil and gas in a potentially booming industry for the state. These concerns, too, will drive the rural vote, Portman said.

The Romney campaign and the Republican Party say there is yet another factor on their side in Ohio: disaffection among Obama voters who will see Romney, with his government, investment and Winter Olympics experience, as a business-tested alternative to the incumbent president.

Even if Democratic turnout is as high as in 2008, Obama could lose Ohio if as few as 3 percent of his 2008 voters switch sides, according to a campaign memo by Rick Wiley, political director of the Republican National Committee.

The Obama re-election team says that's wishful thinking.

Polls before the primary showed that Ohio voters in urban areas favored Obama in a potential race against Romney, said Obama campaign manager Jim Messina.

Statewide, Obama's lead in such a potential Ohio match-up was so close in Quinnipiac University's last three polls as to make the result a statistical tie.

Yet independent voters in these statewide polls favored Obama by a small margin. And helping shore up what Democrats say is an advantage are the opinions of young and urban-county voters who for now prefer Obama and, Democrats say, can help halt any Romney momentum.

CNN exit polls in Ohio on Tuesday showed Romney did well with voters earning more than $100,000. He also was favored over Santorum by voters age 50 and above, by moderate Republicans and by college graduates.

But "in every state but his home state of Massachusetts, he lost independent voters," Messina said. "He lost middle-class voters, and those are who typically decide elections in Ohio."

Addressing the question the day after the primary, Messina said, "You can't put together a coalition to win the general election in Ohio without young voters, which he lost last night, without independents, which he lost last night, or without middle-class voters, which he lost last night."

Blue-collar voters in southeast are key

There is one other factor from Super Tuesday that suggests a challenge for Romney in November if he is, in fact, the nominee: blue-collar workers in southeast Ohio.

Their counties are likely to go Republican. But Obama proved in 2008 -- and John Kerry failed to in 2004 -- that a Democrat can boost his chances statewide by motivating enough Democratic voters in this economically struggling, rural region. They'll never be a majority, but Democrats and analysts say their help at the margins can help compensate for Republican advantages elsewhere.

In tiny Hocking County, for instance, George W. Bush beat Kerry by 765 votes. Four years later, a Republican candidate, McCain, won the county again -- but by only 105 votes. With small boosts like this in rural counties and majorities in the cities, Obama, the Democrat, won the state.

Romney fell to Santorum in Hocking County by a wide margin, 44.8 percent to 26 percent. There are bigger counties in the region, but the pattern holds.

"I have a hard time feeling that Romney could connect with these folks," said Dan Birdsong, a political-science lecturer at the University of Dayton. "For me, watching this race, I don't see Romney making strong inroads with blue-collar workers that he needs."

The race so far has had surprises, though, and polls and primary nights have not been predictable. Romney's campaign says doubters will be surprised even in parts of Ohio where Romney came in second.

"After Gov. Romney becomes the nominee, we'll reach out to all voters," said Williams, the campaign spokesman, "to rally around the common goal of defeating Barack Obama."

With reporting by Rich Exner, Plain Dealer data analysis editor

Romney and Obama votes

In the 22 Ohio counties won by Obama in 2008, Romney defeated Rick Santorum, 42 percent to 34 percent (245,883 to 201,445). But in the 66 mostly rural Ohio counties won by John McCain in 2008, Santorum outpolled Romney, 40 percent to 34 percent (244,252 to 210,322.)

Click the map for vote details by county, or see county-by-county listings at this link