Free Golf Betting Tips: Madrid Masters and Fry?s Open

European Tour - Tour Champtionship

By Halfway House

Okay, so a quick review of last week (let?s make it very quick!)

Main hope and in-form Thomas Bjorn was cantering at Kingsbarns last Thursday morning, 3-under and three-up over Lee Westwood in the maximum match bet. Then they turned into the back-9 and it all started unravelling?very quickly, Bjorn shooting 1-over for the back-9, going from Top-10 to 25th and worse still, Westwood finishing at -4. Top that with the strange performance of course lover Stephen Gallacher, 4-under at St.Andrews for nine holes before an abysmal 6-over for his final nine.

Rory McIlroy?s effort was even stranger. Looking completely ill?at ease on the Thursday morning, his next 27 holes were a masterclass in getting back into the event and he overcame a 5-shot overnight deficit on Sunday to come through and lead at 20-under before the effort seemed to tell. Rory missed vital putts coming home and probably didn?t put enough pressure on compatriot and eventual winner Michael Hoey, who came again down the stretch to win going away. Despite going off at masive prices, Hoey had plenty of form on undualting fairways and greens being a winner at Madeira and he proved his mental strength with this third win on Tour. He is simply very good when conditions are favourable, though it is doubtful if we will see Betfair odds of 500+ again soon.

Over in Las Vegas, confirmed lunatic Kevin Na displayed a brilliant round of putting to ease ahead on Payday, eventually winning by two from ante-post favourite Nick Watney. His previous stats had certainly given him a chance in this birdie-a-thon although it was a surprise to see him quite as resiliant in front?and just for laughs, take a look at a previous Na moment ? a 16 on one hole of the Texas Open??www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWTXoNzuk8c

One of those things perhaps,?quite unexplainable, but he?moved on as shall we,?hopefully upwards.

Two very difficult events this week, and for differing reasons.

Over in Madrid, World number one Luke Donald gracefully steps down in class to defend his title, won last year at Club de Campo. Respect must be paid to Donald who surely has better things to do than show up here but his determination to succeed as money leader in both Tours plus his personal respect to the organisers is a lesson to many of his rivals.

As far as the event is concerned, the competition takes place at a completely new venue, the El Encin Golf Hotel, said to be long, protected by many bunkers and extremely undulating.?Although possessing an enviable record in Spain none of this looks to be Donald?s forte and whilst there is no doubt that his short game is one of the best since the legendary Tiger, he must be getting tired after three weeks of intense competition and he never looked happy on last weeks undulations and greens ? there is huge value in opposing him this week at a paltry 5-1.

Opposing Luke is easy, getting the winner is far more difficult?and it may be that he will make the market at halfway and allow far more value in betting at that point. Nevertheless, there appear to be three players worth getting with ante-post.

The easy-to-reach Par-5s suggest that a boomer could really prosper here this week and they don?t come much longer than Nicolas Colsaerts.

Colsaerts struggled for years on the main Tour but since getting his card back in 2010 has risen to 13th in the Race To Dubai with a display of accuracy to match that power. Following that win in China, he looked sure to kick-on before falling off a motor scooter and injuring his arm just days before The Open.

He certainly looked the part on his return with an 11th in France (blew up late on) and a 3rd in the Scottish Open only to be delayed by injury again. To his credit, Colsaerts has retruned to form again with a pipe-opener in Holland before catching the eye last week at the Dunhill Links, ever present on the leaderboard before winding up with a final round 67 and a 9th place finish. In between, Colsaerts played sporadic bursts of brilliance at the Seve Trophy?and he seems to be peaking at the right time, just a couple of months away from Dubai.

This course looks sure to suit Colsaerts style, and it is good to note that despite being known for length off the tee, he ranks top-20 for accuracy with the big stick, and top-10 for accuracy with his irons. There is no point being long off the tee without knowing where the ball is going especially with so many bunkers, and with a Spanish record that includes a couple of top-10s in his last five tries he looks sure to make his presence felt. 20-1 is no giveaway and the advice is not to take any less, but he ranks a huge player.

It?s all about prices this week and the likes of Franni Molinari and short-hitting Matteo Manessaro look very tight in the book and whilst respect is paid to RTD regular Peter Hanson, he is not showing anything like the stats thought required for this test and he is comfortably passed over.

Rather like the PGA Fall Series, players here have one eye on keeping their card for next year and will want a decent set of results in October to ensure a good wage through 2012, or at least avoid the dreaded Q-school. As such a few players may be?able to lift themselves above recent form and Steve Webster fits that bill.

When Webster hits form he tends to keep it for a streak and with recent results 25th/30th and 18th at the Dunhill last week, he is approaching peak form at his favourite time of the year. Webbo is deceptively long, being just?5 feet 8 inches tall, but does boast driving stats in the top-10 and accuracy figures that need respect. The trouble with Webbo is that he always seems to find some way of ruining his round -?a poor approach shot, a duffed scramble or a four-putt and it does require some faith to see him winning this week.

On the other hand, as said this is his time of year and he always plays consistent golf?around the Portugese events and often in slightly higher?quality fields. Ranked a lowly 113th at this time, this would be his worst finish for many years and he will certainly want to play next week?s event without any pressure. He needs a good tournament and the pick of his form provides it ? top-20 last week without any sort of iron game ? and at 66-1 he is the right price.

Another player who could do with a good week, this time to challenge for a RTD place, is Argentinian Ricardo Gonzales.

Looking only at recent form, it is hard to believe that Gonzo is ranked in front of someone like Webster, but his form has tailed off since an excellent start to his 2011 season. Top-20 in every one of the top-class desert events, Gonzo can also boast a top-20 at the BMW PGA and a 4th in the Welsh Open ? all before the middle of June. Four missed cuts followed and on those you would give him little chance. However, recently he has an upturn in results finishing top-50 in Switzerland before a 25th in Holland.?Gonzo?s best form gives him a far better chance than his current price, and he does boast two wins in Spain although way back in 2003/4.

Rather like Webster, Gonzo has a target to achieve?even if ultimately it is a?far higher one and having played so well in the big events in January 2011 will be looking to have a chance to repeat these?efforts. His mental strength is in no doubt ? Gonzo was in danger of losing his card in 2010 for the first time in 12 years. With six events left, he made the cut in each one rising to 115th and saving his privilages. All of this indicates he is simply too big at 90-1 and bigger.

For the final pre-event bet, turn to talented South African Jaco Van Zyl.

Van Zyl was a run-of-the-mill Sunshine Tour player for many years but over the last couple of seasons has surely become one of the best Springbok players and has thrived in Europe.

Qualifying through Q-School, Van Zyl has had an impressive first full season on Tour, very much like compatriot George Coetzee although neither have won yet. It cannot be long before that first victory and with a run of figures 13/11/51/11/3/9 in Europe, Van Zyl must be expected to challenge in a field where at least half cannot be fancied. Most likeable is Van Zyl?s ability to finish an event strongly as his 64 in Switzerland shows and ignoring the tornado-force winds in Sweden, his final round score has not been worse than 71 in his last eight completed events. That includes a slightly dissapointing final 70 at scoreable St. Andrews last Sunday but he still finished top-10 and gives the impression he will be fine with undulations at this week?s course.

As far as winning is concerned, Van Zyl has been winning events since a very early age. Five wins on the Sunshine Tour in 2010 and a win at the Telekom (for the third time) are not top-grade wins but he beat multiple winner Jean Hugo and European winner Thomas Aiken and there is no doubt he can step up and claim European Tour gold at some point. Comfortably inside the RTD qualifying zone, he won?t want to slip up and, despite nothing really standing out in his stats, he is consistent and an ever-present on the boards in this grade?and is a proven winner. It was close between the three main Springboks but Jaco just got the nod.

Free Golf Tips ? Recommended Bets

NICOLAS COLSAERTS ? 2 POINTS EACH-WAY @ 20-1 (POWER/BETFRED/LADBROKES)

JACO VAN ZYL ? 1.5 POINTS EACH-WAY @ 28-1 (BETFRED/CORALS)

STEVE WEBSTER ? 1 POINT EACH-WAY @ 66-1 (GENERAL)

STEVE WEBSTER ? 2 POINTS TOP 10?@ 13-2 (CHANDLER)

JACO VAN ZYL? ? 4 POINTS TOP 10 @ 11-4 (CHANDLER)

A much more brief?summary for the Fry?s Open as the whole event revolves around Tiger Woods and his return to full-time golf.

As one journalist put it, Tiger Woods appearing at a Fall Series event is like Secretariat appearing in a selling race and to be honest it has me quite confused.

As the entire world knows the fomer undisputed world number one, and greatest ever player of the game (and possibly of any sport) has now been demoted outside the top-50, something unthinkable just 30 months ago. Still, it isn?t this columns concern about his personal affairs, merely his golf game, and 7-1 is very tempting on a course that will ask for target golf and provide a winning score of 15-under or less.?What to do?

Simply put, had Tiger Woods circa anything between 2000-2008 turn up, he would be backed even at 6-4 yet he is on the drift this week despite assurances that his game is in good shape. Tiger insists his new golf swing is working despite his coach taking months off to nurse a new baby, and despite being accused of poaching his new caddie from Dustin Johnson. I hold no truck with the claims that he shot 62 at his new course last weekend, I would be pretty sure that most of the world top-50 would shoot no worse than 65 round an easy course set-up for their own self-confidence.

It simply would not surprise me to see Tiger win this event by six shots; however, it wouldn?t shock to see him finish sixth only to hear the (now dull) quotes of ?my game is getting there,? just need more reps?.

Amid all that, it is probably best to?treat this event as a ?without Tiger Woods? and look at the betting as such.

Yes, he has significant connections to California and he did finish 5th last week in the Shriners but 25-1 about absolute loon Spencer Levin is a joke price. 11th in overall scoring is a fair stat considering he?has attitude problems when it goes wrong and he simply has no outstanding?figure in his armoury- he ranks mid-table in virtually every significant factor and on a low scoring course that will not be good enough.

That?s the?top two in the market crossed out and the rest are soon to follow. Louis Oosthuizen is surely not screaming out as the next PGA Tour winner, whilst Ben Crane, Paul Casey and Ernie Els all have it to prove in the mix on recent evidence. Ironically, despite winning last week in some style, it must surely take more than 5 days for Kevin Na to get his?competitive mindset back and it is fairly easy to look further down the list for runners at big prices.

First to leap out the page is Tommy Gainey.

I was expecting to see the in-form ?Two-gloves? much higher in the market at around 25/28 and his current price of around 50-1 is an insult.

Twice winner on the Nationwide Tour this popular player can certainly shoot low scores when needed. Already?3rd four times this season Gainey is on the cusp of his first main Tour win and coming off a?closing third last week in the Shriners may well do enough this week to give him some kind of stability in what otherwise looks a frantic golfing demeanour.

As far as his game is concerned, Gainey has had chances down the stretch already this season and whilst he didn?t quite get home in the Heritage or Zurich Classic, that was not due to collapses finishing both with 68 and 69 respectively. Since then he has had three further top-10s and all at low-scoring tracks such as this. Gainey wan?t happy with his ball striking throughout the first two days of last weeks event, but he straightened that out and came again strongly after an early bogey, to be beaten only by Kevin Na and Nick Watney.

Despite having no form here, that is true of the majority of the field with the course used only in 2010 and it may be that a hot putter wins the day. Gainey fits the profile of winners at this time of year, he finds greens and is?streaky with the short stick. If he can control his emotions when challenging, he really is far too big a price. Given the poor form of Louis Oosthuizen on the PGA Tour (5 missed cuts?from 6 starts), and his weakness on the greens last weekend in Scotland,?take Gainey to beat him in the 72-matchbet at 5-4 for good stakes.

Cameron Beckman, Troy Matteson and Rocco Mediate ? none of those leaped off the page at the time but all three were successful in this event and all three were in trouble, facing the Q-school before their wins. As such, it isn?t difficulty to see anyone of?sixty or so players taking this title but for the second pick trust near veteran Paul Goydos, an excellent 3rd last weekend.

Goydos has suffered a fair bit of injury during his long career and it is hoped that he is coming back to some form, the form that saw him reach a play-off for the 2008 Players and shoot a 59 in the 2010 John Deere. That is entirely possible as last weekend he registered 1st in driving accuracy and 2nd in greens in regulation, both stats that will allow him plenty of chances on the greens this week. Early season form was excellent, with 9th in the Heritage followed by a 3rd in KJ Choi?s Players and 10th at the Crown Plaza. ?It isn?t as if Goydos is a?fluke player, he just has his results in streaks and if he carries on from a finish that secured his 2012 card he could easily repeat fellow veteran Mediate?s win here. Either way, he seems fit and ready and although the price is going, there is still value there.

From the opposite side of the age spectrum, Patrick Cantlay at 19 is a much more speaculative wager but with reason.

A Californian resident, Cantlay has his golf future ahead of him but he has shown enough in a brief career to think he will soon be head-and-shoulders above the majority of this field. Cantlay?s ability as a youngster can be seen alongside the excitement that greeted Rory McIlroy as he first came on to the scene, yet he probably has better initial promise.

Still an amateur, Cantlay qualified for the US Open eventually finished 21st?(ironically won by Rory of course) before coming out a week later and ending top-25 at the Travelers. Good though that may be, the stunning course record he shot in the second round at Conneticut brought to him the public?s eyes and he wasn?t disgraced in coping with the hype and shooting 72 and 70 over the weekend. He has had just two other starts on the main Tour this season, 20th at the AT & T and a?top-10 in?Canada, all finishes that show him to be way above the status that he currently holds.

Cantlay has his moments of failure too, losing to Kelly Kraft in the recent US Amateur Trophy, and he didn?t quite kick-on in the recent Walker Cup but there is no doubting his results when in with the big boys. Although he keeps?insisting he is happy as an amateur there will surely be too much pressure from sponsers during the close season for him to stick to that vow and it may be a while before we see him setled enough to produce these sorts of results uner?heavy scrutiny. For now though, take a chance on a top placing for a player you will hear a lot more of, and very soon.

Free Golf Tips ? Recommended Bets

TOMMY GAINEY -?2.5 POINTS EACH-WAY @ 55-1 (BET 365)

PAUL GOYDOS -? 1.5 POINTS EACH-WAY @ 66-1 (HILLS) 60-1 (BET365/TOTESPORT)

PATRICK CANTLAY ? 1 POINT EACH-WAY @ 50-1 (BET365/LADBROKES)

TOMMY GAINEY TO BEAT LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN ? 72 HOLE MATCHBET ? 10 POINTS @ 5-4 (CORALS)

Finally a reminder that this column is still ?on trial? for the rest of the year, hopefully to return in 2012.?I am still tidying up a few loose ends and?coming to terms with a staking plan as well as sorting out a way of including all in-running bets. Beacuse of publishing delays? all in-running bets will now be put as brief messages on Twitter, with main articles on the site when time allows.?We are working on making these visible on the Home page but this may take a while, so all comments and suggestions are welcomed. For anyone wishing to follow the tips, they wll appear on @thirtsixholes.

Thank you for your support and Good Luck.

For a guide to staking and how to follow our free golf betting tips you can visit http://www.systemlays.co.uk/free-golf-betting-tips-how-to-follow-our-tips/9444/.

Source: http://www.systemlays.co.uk/free-golf-betting-tips-madrid-masters-and-frys-open/9885/

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